Dong Ximiao, Principal Investigator of Zhaolian: Support small and medium-sized banks to better establish a long-term mechanism for capital replenishment. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas and firmly hold the bottom line of systemic risks. The meeting also proposed that the risks of local small and medium-sized financial institutions should be properly handled. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, believes that more resolute and effective measures should be taken to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, speed up the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. (SSE)Liu Xiaochun, Vice President of Shanghai New Finance Research Institute: Small and medium-sized financial institutions may focus on capital increase, restructuring and mergers and acquisitions. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas and firmly hold the bottom line of no systematic risks. The meeting also proposed that the risks of local small and medium-sized financial institutions should be properly handled. Liu Xiaochun, vice president of Shanghai Institute of New Finance and Shanghai Jiaotong University Institute of Finance, believes that local debt risks are gradually being resolved, and efforts should be made to resolve real estate risks and risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions in the next stage. (SSE)Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)
GBP/USD of GBP against USD fell by 1.27, with an intraday decrease of 0.40%.The director of the Federal Aviation Administration will step down on Trump's swearing-in day, and the director of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plans to step down on January 20, Trump's presidential swearing-in day. In a letter to employees issued by the FAA Information Office, Michael Whitaker announced his decision to leave. Whitaker has only been in office for more than a year. In October 2023, his nomination as director of FAA was unanimously approved by the Senate. Mark House, Assistant Director of Finance and Management of FAA, will serve as Acting Deputy Director.Zhu Keli, executive director of China Information Association: Boosting consumption ranks first in the key work next year. Zhu Keli, executive director of China Information Association and founding president of the National Research Institute of New Economics, told reporters that boosting consumption is the top priority of economic work next year, ranking first in the key work next year, which is based on the new changes and new demands of the current economic situation. Among the specific measures to boost consumption, the highlights include the implementation of the special action to boost consumption, the implementation of the "two new" policy, and greater support for the "two new" projects. These measures are aimed at promoting consumption growth in an all-round way by optimizing the consumption environment, increasing consumption supply and improving consumption quality. (SSE)
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)WTI crude oil fell by 1.00% in the day and is now reported at $69.26/barrel.Spot silver fell below $31 per ounce, down 2.82% in the day. COMEX silver fell 4.00% in the day and is now quoted at $31.65 per ounce.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide 12-14